Supply Chain Reaction

 Bikes, E-commerce  Comments Off on Supply Chain Reaction
Feb 212012
 

Supply Chain Chaos

If you’re a dealer cog in the complex drive train of bicycle sales, a big gear in your system started turning last weekend. You might not have felt it yet, but you will.

This was the first year I didn’t attend Frostbike, a mammoth bike industry get together at the mothership of the industry’s most formidable distributor, Quality Bicycle Products, in Minneapolis. I’d like to think I didn’t attend because there just wasn’t any challenge in it, given the incredibly mild weather the Twin Cities had this year–at least, compared to last year, when our flights home were canceled and we had to rent a car and idle through a 300-mile white-out at a blistering fifteen miles an hour while subsisting on cheese curds and counting wrecked cars to pass the time. Sadly, not attending this year means I missed something that’s been many years in the making. Bicycle Retailer is describing it as a “war”. The mighty Q’s El Presidente and Raison d’Etre All in One, Steve Flagg, called out some large retailers, including Amazon, in a pretty unequivocal way:

“I believe that our industry is losing the war against the Chain Reactions, the Wiggles, the Amazons. We think that together with all of you we can address this problem.”

Well damn. This is a tremendous statement. If it doesn’t seem to tremendous consider that QBP’s headquarters is very much in Minnesota, where the average denizen could be handed a foamy-mouthed possum instead of a burger at a drive-through window, and just politely drive away for fear of hassling the store manager and maybe getting somebody in trouble. In fact, this statement translates from the native Midwestern parlance just about like this:

And just what does QBP intend to do about it? According to BRAIN’s article, Flagg is quoted as telling the gathered dealers:

Via mobile device, a customer in a shop could log on to a QBP service with access to its stores’ inventory and search for a specific product. A map would pop up indicating the nearest shops that have the product in stock or that will have it in a predetermined number of days.

If a retailer is selected for same-day pickup, the customer would pay for it online and then be asked if they want the product installed at the shop. Flagg noted this would play to local dealers’ key strength and offer what online competitors can’t: service, warranty information and deep product knowledge.

“I believe we have the capacity in 2012 to do this.”

BRAIN has a known weakness in what I believe is generally considered “journalism” and involves things like follow-up questions, and, having not been there, I’m left to wonder if Flagg was merely musing here (as he did one year when he asked the gathered dealers clamoring for him to basically make them all web sites why he shouldn’t just become the biggest on-line dealer himself), or if this technology is on the short list of to-dos at QBP. Even if this idea is only that, though–merely an idea–it marks a technological answer to the problem of mobile price shopping apps released by the likes of Amazon–an issue heretofore only addressed by Specialized, who only whined about it and used for their own political ends. To be sure, QBP stands to experience their own political gains–not to mention top line growth–in pursuing something like this, but a trademark QBP distinction is also evident: this helps local dealers.

But showing us a shiny new weapon in the battle for independent bike shops is only a small part of the significance of this statement. I’ve long been rambling on about how local bike shops need to get their asses on the Internet and start staking their claim to bicycles in the digital age, or stop whining, give up and become a repair-only shop.This newly announced stance by the major player in the wholesale distribution space is a big deal for reasons that might not initially be so obvious. In singling out a particular type of massive on-line retailer–the digital equivalent of Walmart–and pitching a new mobile technology for local shops, Flagg is legitimizing the Internet as a means of selling bicycle parts.

The minute you’re pro-actively heading onto the web to pursue sales, you are an “Internet retailer,” and this is precisely what Flagg had to sell at Frostbike this year. Whether the mobile app involved takes us to a local shop’s web site to make a purchase, or tells us where we can walk in their door is, ultimately, inconsequential here. He is suggesting the IBD move from “gatherer” to “hunter.” That’s a big deal. More importantly, he’s letting us all know this is not a drill, and he’s not a guy you should ignore. Even if Flagg wasn’t one of the smartest people in the industry, listening to everything he says very carefully would be wise, if only because of the huge quantities of industry intelligence and analytics his company is constantly gathering. Add the fact that he is one of the smartest guys in this or any other industry, and you’re looking at a genuine warning for all IBDs. Far be it for me to say I told you so, but with or without QBP’s help, dealers need to do something now.

The Bike Shop vs. Groupon

 Bikes, Swine  Comments Off on The Bike Shop vs. Groupon
Sep 022011
 

“Though rubber-banding a photograph to a roly-poly super ball increases its utility, its picture quality plummets after playing just a few rounds of fetch. Put a photo in a durable place with today’s Groupon: for $45, you get one 16″x20″ thick (1.5″) gallery-wrapped canvas from Canvas on Demand (a $126.95 value).”

That’s the text of a Groupon promotion I just received. If you somehow haven’t heard of them, Groupon is the daily deals business phenomenon currently valued at $30 billion dollars, though by the time you finish reading this, it might be $40 billion, or $200 billion, or $25 bucks. Much like the text of their promotions, Groupon as a company tends to bury a few facts inside a cute dumpsterload of rambling nonsense.

Now meet Rob. Rob used to be the lead bike tech at a bike shop I owned once upon a time. He’s now opened his own shop, Cycle Symphony, and it has all the makings of a quality shop.

Like most bike shops, Rob’s business model is relatively straightforward: he sells consumers products and services. His success or failure will ultimately depend on attracting customers and keeping them happy. Much like I’d done with my shop, Rob is catering to serious cyclists, and for anyone with a deep appreciation of mountain bikes and technology, his shop is downright amazing. I doubt you’ll find a larger collection of one-off custom made mountain bikes anywhere in Pennsylvania. And I don’t mean a Specialized with a Gore cable kit and some read headset spacers. I’m talking frames made only for Rob, most by famed frame builder Frank the Welder. Check it out.

Unlike Rob’s small, local shop, Groupon is a Prime Mover, an innovation-driven company and a potential major engine preparing to help salvage the struggling American economy, just as Pets.com did in the late ’90s. Whereas bike shops in America only employ people, Groupon Employs People! While bike shops out there just sell stuff, Groupon Sells Stuff! The difference should be obvious to you, but just in case, I’ve set forth some key distinguishing features:

1. Innovative Business Model

Bike Shop:

  1. Sell goods and services.

Groupon:

  1. Convince retailers to sell their products and services for at least half price.
  2. Take about half of the half they have left as your profit.
  3. Funnel as many customers as possible to them to clean off their shelves at drastically discounted prices.
  4. Dramatically increase customer base of the retailer to now include a zombie throng of new customers who expect everything to be at least half price.

2. Funding

I started my bike shop with about $25,000. Rob’s also doing his best to keep things lean and efficient. His first step was doing, as opposed to looking for those who can do for him while he powerpoints venture capitalists and dreams up phrases like “organic monetization.”

According to Groupon’s SEC filing, they spent almost $400,000,000 on marketing so far in 2011. And marketing’s not their biggest expense. Their administrative costs in the first two quarters of 2011 account for another $452,000,000. That’s nearly a billion dollars spent in just the first half of 2011. What are they buying with all this money? One word: talent:

A spaghetti noodle, much like a swimming-pool noodle, maintains its shape until it’s exposed to boiling water or sat on by children. Savor pasta’s forced flexibility with today’s Groupon: for $12, you get $25 worth of Italian fare at Tuscany Square Ristorante in New Castle, PA.

The chefs at Tuscany Square Ristorante recreate traditional Tuscan recipes, simmering savory sauces to ladle over a menu of pasta, steak, and seafood. Adept hands construct house-made lasagna, layering soft noodles between strata of bubbling homemade marinara and meat ($12.95). A 10-ounce slab of Choice sirloin ($16.95) ages for 30 days and debuts mature and ready to assume the responsibilities of pleasing a palate, filling a stomach, and refinancing a mortgage.

Chefs drizzle the chicken piccata with white wine, capers, and a spritz of lemon ($14.95), and they coat a grilled salmon fillet in pepper-berry seasoning that, like a cheerleader, has an enthusiastic kick ($16.95). Diners can fill their bellies in the more-formal setting of the dining room or munch in the more laid-back lounge, which is equipped with a full bar and three flat-screen TVs to ensure patrons won’t miss reruns of their favorite sports games.

That’s from one of today’s deals. Think you could’ve written that there, Rimbaud? Of course not. A huge part of Groupon’s absurd operating expenditures can be blamed on the exotic acquisition needs of their writing department:

  1. Seed clouds with magical eggs to lure and capture a live Care Bear.
  2. Force Care Bear to smoke cigarettes and watch gruesome footage of World War II narrated by Bob Saget.
  3. Buy copy of Microsoft Office.

Anyway, that’s why my next venture won’t be in retail, but rather an SaaS (not entirely sure what that is, but it’s very hot right now, and sounds like “Sass!”). I’m working on a cutting edge cloud-based consumer-facing social network management and motivational system for success-driven companies who like Web 2.0 sites with big font sizes and rounded corners (small fonts and sharp edges are so Pets.com). Four hundred times each day, auto-generated profanity-laden criticism of your company will be automatically created, distributed to Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn, and some seriously huge social networks in China you don’t even know about, and then searched out, compiled and sent right to your customer service department, offering consumer-centric Fortune 500 companies a better idea of what consumers actually think about their companies. I’m right now putting the final touches on the artificial intelligence algorithms and hiring an app developer.

I’m accepting initial rounds of funding now (investment offers under $10M will not be considered, though I appreciate your interest). I have a good feeling I can land Groupon as my first client.